Service Plays Monday 4/12/10

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

New Addition to Service Play Forum..Specifically for posting additional topics.

The Rx.com Mod Team has created this Service Play sub-forum in order to supply an area for Rx Service Play Posters to expand upon their posting topics without creating a logjam in the main forum where the three principle threads are maintained..

Posters can track services here if they care to but we will need any trackers to do so in an accurate and civil manner. We did not create this area for posters to ridicule or bash any services..

You can also discuss who is hot and who is not. The general state of the pay for plays industry and any other subject or topic related to service plays.

You can also create individual threads about specific services and discuss them freely but civilly. Again bashing and abusive treatment of any services will not be tolerated.

Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post ther daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.

The Rx.com will not tolerate posters that post false records of any services they track. Please be truthful if you decide to track a particular service.

Lastly The Rx Moderators are appealing to you our everyday posters to report any promotional threads or posts that are made by services or individual touts. No links or contact information to an individual service will be allowed. Just the name of the service. Please report any threads or posts that are promotional attempts by services and touts to use this forum to promote themselves..

Posters can easily report a promotional post by using the triangular Report-a-Post Icon at the bottom left of all post boxes. The poster name of any poster who reports a post that is out of line will be kept strictly confidential.

I will leave this thread open for a month to take questions and do my best to answer them. I will check in daily but am off on Wednesday and Thursday.

I hope this additional Service Play Forum will satisfy those posters that would like to widen the scope of topics relating to service plays and the industry in general to have their own threads. Mods will be liberal as possible regarding topics but this forum was specifically created to allow you more freedom to express your ideas regarding service plays and related subject matter. No off topic threads will be allowed.

Thank you, wilheim




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For The Record.
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Thank you, wilheim.......

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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

(cpaw rx) is on facebook

I will use that location as a back up just in case we ever go down. You can friend me with your real name or rx name either way i will keep everything private. When we went down for the weekend a year ago or so I took up drinking. Hey it's a back up and from the looks of it - it would work nicely just in case.

 

[ugk]

PICK 'N' ROLL

Monday's Best NBA Bets

Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks (-1, 189)
The Bucks suffered their first loss since leading scorer, rebounder and starting center Andrew Bogut went down for the season Saturday night against the Celtics.
And while no one is underestimating Bogut’s impact, no one is counting Milwaukee out either.
"Scotty (Skiles) was doing a terrific job before that and now he continues to do a terrific job," Celtics bench boss Doc Rivers told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel. "They play so hard. Part of their talent is the energy they play with every night. My first year in Orlando we had a team similar to that.
"No one could actually identify how we were winning or what it was. People back then were reluctant to identify energy as a talent. That's a very difficult talent to counteract."
A team with energy as one of its chief strengths is always a good bet late in the regular season.

Pick: Bucks


Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers (+4, 210.5)
About three weeks ago, Indiana coach Larry O’Brien vowed that his club would play hard down the stretch. Turns out he’s a man of his word.
The Pacers are 10-2 straight up over their last 12 games and 15-4-1 against the spread over their last 20.
The secret to Indy’s success? The 3-point shot.
As Indianapolis Star reporter Mike Wells points out, O’Brien loves to space the floor and bomb from beyond the arc.
The Pacers are averaging 119 points over their last four games and they’ve gone over the total in four of their last five games.

Pick: Over

 

[ugk]

HOT LINES

Monday’s Best MLB Bets

Chicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays (105, 8)
Is it a career revival or just a hot start?
That’s the question Jays backers are asking themselves about centerfielder Vernon Wells after watching him club four homers and drive in seven runs in his first five games this season.
You have to understand the early skepticism. The Jays would have traded away Wells, one of the most highly paid players in the majors, for a bun-less hot dog last season.
Wells dealt with shoulder and wrist injuries in 2009 and saw his homer total drop to 15.
"He's been awesome, absolutely great," Toronto manager Cito Gaston told the Canadian Press. "It's just what we needed. You don't expect him to hit home runs like that, but something close would be nice."
While Wells and the Jays are sure to come back down to Earth soon, expect the high to carry over into its home opener.

Pick: Jays


Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins (130, 9)
Weren't the Twins supposed to miss All-Star closer Joe Nathan? New ninth-inning man Joe Rauch is four for four in save opportunities and the Twins are 5-1 entering Sunday’s finale vs. the White Sox.
"No surprise," Nathan told the St. Paul Pioneer Press. "As long as (Rauch) can get off to a good start and get his head right, anything can happen. And this is just about as good a start as he could have to get his confidence and mind right to get a tough out when it comes."
Yes it’s early, but you have to love the early numbers if you’re a Minnesota fan: Bullpen ERA of 1.47 and 10 homers off Twins bats in just six games.
Boston’s relievers haven’t been nearly as good and the group has cost Sox backers a few winning tickets already this season.
It’ll be difficult for Terry Francona’s boys to stop Minnesota’s early season momentum playing against them in the Twins’ home opener and first-ever game at the new Target Field.

Pick: Twins

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Big Al

NBA
3* 76ers
3* pacers
3* bucs
3* kings

MLB
3* braves
Opinion sawx/twins over
Opinion blue jays

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the the Yankees Sunday.

Today it's the Rays. The deficit is 210 sirignanos.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NBA

Season
Straight Up: 796-345 (.698)
ATS: 610-567 (.518)
ATS Vary Units: 1432-1337 (.517)
Over/Under: 582-603 (.491)
Over/Under Vary Units: 758-788 (.490)

Orlando 105, INDIANA 100
Miami 97, PHILADELPHIA 92
DETROIT 102, Toronto 101
Charlotte 96, NEW JERSEY 91
NEW YORK 106, Washington 100
MILWAUKEE 97, Atlanta 93
SAN ANTONIO 111, Minnesota 92
DENVER 110, Memphis 101
PORTLAND 100, Oklahoma City 95
Houston 104, SACRAMENTO 103
Dallas 105, L.A. CLIPPERS 97

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DCI NHL 4/14/10

Season: 422-281 (.600)

Eastern Conference Playoffs, 1st Round
Game 1, best-of-7 series
Philadelphia vs. NEW JERSEY: TOO CLOSE TO CALL
PITTSBURGH 4, Ottawa 3
Western Conference Playoffs, 1st Round
Game 1, best-of-7 series
SAN JOSE 4, Colorado 3
PHOENIX 3, Detroit 2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS ADVISORS

MONDAY, APRIL 12

NBA

Toronto (38-42, 37-43 ATS) at Detroit (26-54, 33-45-2 ATS)

The Raptors try to bounce back from Sunday’s devastating loss to the Bulls when they travel to the Palace of Auburn Hills for a matchup with the Pistons. After Sunday’s 104-88 home loss to Chicago as a 2½-point underdog, the Raptors are now one game behind the Bulls with two games remaining in the race for the final spot in the Eastern Conference playoffs. Toronto has now dropped five straight (1-4 ATS) and eight of its last 11 (6-5 ATS) overall. One positive: The Raptors have won four of seven on the road (6-1 ATS). Detroit has followed up an 11-game losing streak by winning three of its last four, and the Pistons have matched a season-best 5-0 ATS run after a 10-game ATS slump. Most recently, Detroit cashed as a 7½-point underdog in Sunday’s 99-95 road loss in Charlotte. In fact, the Pistons’ 5-0 ATS run has all come from the underdog role and includes Wednesday’s 90-88 outright home win over the Hawks as a 5½-point pup. That win snapped a five-game SU and ATS home slide. The Raptors have won and covered in each of the three head-to-head meetings this season, including a 94-64 blowout victory inside the Palace on Dec. 23, easily cashing as a one-point underdog. The favorite has been the play in nine of the last 11 series clashes, but Toronto’s upset victory on Dec. 23 snapped its 0-4 ATS slide in the Motor City.
Toronto is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games and 4-1 ATS in its last five roadies against teams with losing home records, but it is otherwise on pointspread skids of 1-6 against Central Division teams and 7-20 on the second night of a back-to-back. While Detroit has cashed in five straight, it is still on several negative ATS runs, including 1-5 at home, 0-4 on Monday and 8-20-1 against teams with losing records. For the Raptors, the under has been the play in 36 of 51 Monday contests, but their also on “over” upticks of 6-2 overall, 4-0 on the road and 4-1 against Central Division teams. The Pistons have topped the total in seven straight against Atlantic Division squads and nine of 11 against an opponent with a losing record, but they have stayed low in four of five at home. In this series, the under has cashed in five of the last six in Detroit.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE


Oklahoma City (49-31, 47-33 ATS) at Portland (49-31, 43-35-2 ATS)

Two of the three teams locked in a battle for the sixth seed in the Western Conference hook up at the Rose Garden, as the Thunder visit the Trail Blazers for Northwest Division clash.
Oklahoma City suffered a costly 120-117 loss at Golden State on Sunday, falling as a 7½-point road favorite. The loss dropped the Thunder back into a three-way tie with San Antonio and Portland for the sixth slot in the conference playoff standings. The loser of this game will drop into eighth and face a possible first-round matchup with the defending-champion Lakers. With Sunday’s loss to the Warriors, the young Thunder have now dropped three of their last four following a four-game winning streak. They’ve also alternated ATS wins and losses in their last six contests. Oklahoma City has also followed up a three-game SU and ATS road winning streak with back-to-back SU and ATS losses on the highway. The winner has covered the spread in each of the Thunder’s last 12 road games. Hours before the Thunder fell in Golden State, Portland got a much-needed win in Los Angeles, edging the Lakers 91-88 as a 2½-point underdog. The Blazers have now won seven of their last nine overall (6-3 ATS) and six of their last seven inside the Rose Garden (4-3 ATS). Nate McMillan’s team has been playing lock-down defense lately, yielding between 83 and 87 points in four straight games and holding 22 of its last 28 opponents under triple digits. The road team has won and covered all three meetings between these teams this season, including the Thunder’s 89-77 win as a 1½-point favorite in Portland back on Feb. 9. The Blazers returned the favor in Oklahoma City on March 28, prevailing 92-87 as a four-point pup. Going back to last season, Portland are on a 5-1 SU and ATS roll in this rivalry, with the favorite also going 5-1 ATS in the last six. The Thunder are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven when playing the second night of a back-to-back, but they’re still on several positive ATS runs, including 4-1 on the road, 6-1 on Monday, 20-7 on the road against teams with winning home records and 9-5 against the Western Conference. The Trail Blazers are a whopping 35-16 in their last 51 games playing the second night of a back-to-back (including 14-4 ATS this year), but they’re otherwise on pointspread skids of 2-6 against Northwest Division rivals and 1-5 at home against opponents with a winning home record. Oklahoma City has stayed below the number in 10 of 12 Monday games and 14 of 19 against winning teams, but it is otherwise on “over” runs of 6-2 overall, 6-0 on the road and 6-2-1 on the second night of a back-to-back. Portland has soared past the total in 10 of 14 on the second night of a back-to-back, 12 of 15 on Monday and seven of 10 against division foes, but it is on “under” streaks of 7-3 overall, 7-0 at home against teams with winning road records and 12-2-1 against winning teams. Finally, the “under” has cashed in 10 of 11 overall in this series (3-0 this year) and four of five in Oregon.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PORTLAND


NATIONAL LEAGUE

Cincinnati (3-3) at Florida (4-2)

The Reds hit the road for the first time in 2010 and send Johnny Cueto (0-0, 3.00 ERA) to the mound at Sun Life Stadium opposite the Marlins and Ricky Nolasco (0-0, 4.05). Cincinnati took two of three from the Cubs over the weekend, including Sunday’s 3-1 victory, to give the Reds three wins in their last four games. The Reds are 5-1 in their last six road games and 6-2 in series openers, but they are just 1-6 in their last seven roadies against winning teams. The Marlins won the final two of a three-game set against the Dodgers, including Sunday’s 6-5 victory, to give them four wins in their last five. Florida is 6-1 in its last seven against right-handers, but 0-4 in its last four on Monday and 1-8 in its last nine series openers. Cincinnati is 12-5 in the last 17 meetings between these two teams, even though the two squads split six clashes last season. Cueto started Wednesday for the Reds in a 6-3 home loss to the Cardinals, allowing two runs on five hits in six innings. He had a strong finish to the 2009 season, allowing three runs or less in six of his last eight starts, with the Reds winning five of his last six. His only career start against the Marlins was in June 2008 when he gave up three runs on eight hits in six innings of an 11-3 win. Cincinnati is just 1-4 in Cueto’s last five Monday outings and 0-6 the last six times he’s pitched after full four days off. Nolasco was solid in his Wednesday start in New York, holding the Mets to three runs on three hits in 6 2/3 innings of a 7-6 victory. He closed the 2009 campaign by limiting the opposition to three runs or less in seven of his last nine outings, including a 3-2 win over the Reds, allowing two runs on four hits in seven innings. He’s 1-1 with a 5.11 ERA in five career outings (four starts) against Cincinnati, yielding three runs or less in three of the four starts. With Nolasco on the hill the Marlins are on streaks of 5-2 overall, 21-8 in series openers and 7-3 as a favorite. Cincinnati is on “over” runs of 5-1 against right-handers, 4-1 as an underdog, 20-6-2 against N.L. East teams and 4-1 in Cueto’s last five starts, but the Reds are also on “under” streaks of 19-7-1 on the road and 19-9-2 when Cueto is an underdog. Florida is on a plethora of “over” streaks, including 6-1 overall, 22-7 at home, 9-1-2 against right-handers, 17-6 as a home favorite, 8-1 in Nolasco’s last nine starts, 4-0 when Nolasco pitches at home and 5-0 when Nolasco is favored. In this series, the under is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings, but the over is 8-2 in the last 10 in South Beach.

ATS ADVANTAGE: FLORIDA


AMERICAN LEAGUE

Boston (3-3) at Minnesota (5-2)

The Twins open their brand-new, outdoor Target Field with veteran Carl Pavano (1-0, 1.29 ERA) welcoming the Red Sox and southpaw Jon Lester (0-0, 7.20). Boston won its final two games in Kansas City over the weekend, holding on for an 8-6 victory Sunday. The Red Sox are still just 2-6 in their last eight road games, but they are 37-17 in their last 54 as a favorite and 15-6 in their last 21 as a road chalk. After losing their season opener in Los Angeles on Monday, the Twins won five straight before dropping a 5-4 decision in Chicago on Sunday. Dating back to last season, the Twins are on surges of 22-9 overall, 10-2 at home, 37-16 against left-handed starters and 5-1 on Monday. Boston took four of six from the Twins last season and has won seven of nine since July 2008. However, the Red sox are just 6-13 in their last 19 games in Minneapolis.
Lester gave up four runs on five hits over five innings of Tuesday’s 6-4 home loss to the Yankees, He was stellar to finish last season, though, holding teams to three runs or less in eight of his last nine games. Lester saw the Twins once last season and allowed five runs on six hits in six innings of a 5-2 loss in Minnesota, and in his four career appearances (four starts) versus the Twins he’s allowed 15 runs (13 earned) in 18 2/3 innings (5.66 ERA). Behind Lester, Boston is on positive runs of 57-27 overall, 47-16 as a favorite, 9-2 on Monday, 5-1 as a road chalk and 6-1 after five days off. Pavano was outstanding in his Wednesday start in Los Angeles, allowing just one run on six hits over seven innings of a 4-2 victory, with no walks and six strikeouts. He struggled down the stretch last season, though, allowing four runs or more in three of his final four starts. With Pavano on the hill, Minnesota is on runs of 6-2 overall and 5-2 as an underdog. Pavano faced the Red Sox last May as a member of the Indians, limiting them to two runs on six hits in six innings of a 9-2 win. He is 3-2 with a hefty 7.07 ERA in six career starts against the Red Sox, with last year’s being the first since 2005. Boston is on “over” runs of 36-16-1 as a favorite, 8-1 as a road chalk, 5-1 on Monday, 15-5 in series openers, 5-2 when Lester starts on the road and 5-1-1 when he gets five days off. Minnesota is on several “under” runs, including 7-2-1 overall, 6-2-1 as an underdog, 19-5-2 against A.L. East teams, 11-4-2 in series openers, 5-2-3 in Pavano’s last 10 starts and 4-0-1 when Pavano is an underdog.
Finally, the under cashed in 20 of the last 29 Red Sox-Twins battle in the old Metrodome.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and UNDER

 

[BiggDogg5n2]

Bookie Monster
20-5 Bonus Play Run (80%)
Mon
Chicago WhiteSox -118

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CAPPERS ACCESS
Hawks
Cubs
Blue Jays

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

GAMBLERS DATA
Cubs -155

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Joe Wiz's Daily Free Pick

Under 8 runs bet. the Pirates and Giants

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Game of the day: Thunder at Trail Blazers
By Nick "Bookie Killer" Parsons.

There is one common goal amongst the logjam of teams in the Western Conference playoff scene. Everyone wants to avoid the Lakers in the first round.

Tonight's game will go along way in determining which team draws the short straw.

Portland won at L.A. on Sunday and crawled out of eighth place for the time being. The Thunder are eyeing the fifth seed but could slip all the way to eighth in the final week of play

Brandon Roy questionable

Despite the Trail Blazers' win on Sunday the most important aspect of the game was a knee injury suffered by star guard Brandon Roy.

Roy appeared to have banged his right knee with about 4:30 minutes left in the first quarter and then was seen flexing the knee. He left the game and returned later with a sleeve on it but played only a minute more before leaving for good.

Roy had a meniscus tear in his right knee that forced him to miss parts of his junior year at Washington and had left knee surgery in August of 2008.

Roy has already been sitting out practices with a sore back and may get the night off tonight.

Season series

The road team has won all three games in the series this year and each game has gone under. Nine of the past 10 meetings between the two teams have gone under.

Putting the D in OKC

The Thunder learned a lesson in the past week after blowing leads in two games that resulted in losses. On Friday they nearly did it again but then held Phoenix to just 12 points in the third quarter to snap the skid.

While Thunder coach Scott Brooks refuses to dwell on the past he said he talked about the team's costly defensive lapses. Utah scored 140 points against OKC in an overtime win.

"We play forward," Brooks said. "I have a philosophy, 'We play forward.' We talked about it after the game. We talk about it when we look at film, and then we move on. We learn something from every game.

"We can't run with the Phoenix Suns. We can't expect it to be a jump-shot contest. They're going to beat us in that game more times than not. We have to make them miss and not (be) hoping that they miss."

Closing in on the scoring title

Kevin Durant is on track to becoming the youngest player in NBA history to win the season scoring title. Durant scored 35 points in the win Friday over Phoenix to raise his average to 30.

His competition, LeBron James is averaging 29.7 but the King has sat out three straight games to rest up for the playoffs and he may not play again until they start.

Durant doesn't seem to care about the title.

"I keep telling you it doesn't matter (if I win it)," Durant said. "It's cool to be a part of it... but we've got to compete and win these last few games. Scoring is something I'm not really concerned about because it's going to come within the offense. I'm not going to force anything and continue to play my game."

Suns coach Alvin Gentry said Durant deserves the title.

"You just can't guard him. Nobody can guard him," he said. "Nobody has guarded him this year."

Sun or Thunder?

Gentry and All-Star point guard Steve Nash both said the Thunder will be a tough out in the playoffs.

"These guys could easily win a series and it doesn't matter whether they're (seeded) eighth, sixth or seventh or fourth," Gentry said. "They're playing great basketball."

Said Nash: "I see them as a very dangerous team. Their main guys have now played enough basketball that the deer-in-the-headlights situation isn't really accurate as it may be with other squads. They're ready. They're battle tested."

Trend-setting

The Thunder has made a lot of noise straight up and against the spread on the road this season. They headed into Sunday night's game with 23 road wins after winning 23 total games last year.

The Thunder are 39-18-1 ATS in their last 58 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.

On the negative side, the Thunder are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games playing on zero day's rest.

In contrast, the Trail Blazers are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games playing on zero day's rest.

The Trail Blazers are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.
Trail Blazers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

The under is 14-3-2 in the Thunder's last 19 vs. a team with a winning SU record.

The under is 7-0 in Trail Blazers last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

The under is 12-2-1 in Trail Blazers last 15 vs. a team with a winning SU record and 11-3 in Portland's last 14 home games.

Injury report

As previously mentioned, Roy is questionable after leaving Sunday's game with a knee injury. Seldom used power forward Jeff Pendergraph also missed the game with an illness. He is also questionable.

Oklahoma City's starting center Nenad Krstic was questionable entering Sunday night's game against Phoenix with a right knee contusion. Reserve forward Nick Collison has started in his place and Serge Ibaka, a rookie from the Congo, has played well lately.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brandon Lang
Bonus Play

My 3rd straight Bonus Play winner came Sunday with Philly-Houston Under the total.

I am 6-2 the last 8 days with my comp plays.

I am going to the NBA tonight where I like what I am seeing from Indiana.

The Pacers are 10-2 their last 12 games, and do have a 4-game winning streak on the line.

Orlando does not have any motivation here, and even though they have won 4 in a row coming into Conseco, I expect Van Gundy will be resting some of his starters tonight and Wednesday.

The home team has won the last 6 meetings, and the Pacers are on a solid 9-2-1 home spread run.

Pacers the play.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB RoundUp For 4/12
By Dan Bebe

National League

Brewers @ Cubs (-155) with total of N/A
Jim Edmonds is 4-for-9 with a HR off Dempster;
Casey McGehee is 3-for-7, and Prince Fielder has homered twice off Dempster;
Marlon Byrd is 4-for-12 off Doug Davis with 3 RBI;
Xavier Nady is 6-for-19 with 1 HR and 4 RBI;
Ryan Dempster is 11-3 in his career against the Brew Crew;
Derrek Lee is a miserable 4-for-23 off Davis.
Doug Davis has had surprising success against the Cubs, and Dempster, as well. I don't trust Davis, though, so I would say the Under, when it gets posted, might have some merit.

Nationals @ Phillies (-275) with a total of 9.5
Alberto Gonzalez is 4-for-8 off Hamels;
Chase Utley is 7-for-15 with 3 RBI off Marquis;
Cole Hamels is 8-3, 2.37 ERA against Washington in his career;
Jayson Werth is a perfect 4-for-4 with a solo shot off Marquis.
I feel like we've been down this road with Cole Hamels, but there is simply no chance we lay 275 on anyone, let alone Hamels. As far as the underdog, this line is high for a reason, though at these odds, maybe you hope for a fluke on a quarter-unit flier. You have to look at the Over, too, with the way the Phils have hit to start the season, but I actually advocate a pass on this game, all around.

Astros @ Cardinals (-205) with a total of 7.5
Hunter Pence is batting .346 off Wainwright;
Carlos Lee is 1-for-20 off Wainwright;
Matt Holliday is 6-for-19 with 2 HR off Wandy;
Adam Wainwright is 7-1, 1.92 ERA against the Astros in his career;
Albert Pujols is batting just .161 off Wandy.
It's rare you find a pitcher that Albert Pujols just doesn't "see well" but Wandy is that guy, which, despite his 3-9 career record against the Cards, always makes him dangerous. Of course, his opposition has basically owned the city of Houston, which makes this side a tough one to play. Low total, but I happen to think we get a duel. Plus, if you've seen the Astros offense, it seems like playing the Under is always a solid bet.

Braves (-160) @ Padres with a total of 7.5
In limited action, Yunel Escobar is 3-for-3 off Correia;
Jair Jurrjens is 1-0, 1.32 ERA against the Padres in extremely limited action;
Adrian Gonzalez is 2-for-5 with a home run off Jurrjens.
I know you want to look at the home dog, I do too, but Jurrjens is a beast, and the Padres don't have the offensive firepower to give Jurrjens any sort of fits. This is a bad value on the dog, and a bad value on the favorite, but I'd probably take the Bravos before the Pads. I'd rather take neither. I don't like the total, either, as this line is already accounting for spacious Petco.

Reds @ Marlins (-160) with a total of 8
Drew Stubbs is 2-for-3 with a HR off Nolasco;
Scott Rolen is 2-for-6, Laynce Nix is 2-for-5, and Ryan Hanigan is 1-for-3 with a HR off Nolasco;
Jorge Cantu is 2-for-3 with 2 HR off Johnny Cueto.
Cueto looked much better in his one start this year than, really, at any point in his injury-plagued 2009. Nolasco has pretty nasty stuff, and I honestly don't know if there's enough info here to support a play on either side. The fave is too expensive, the dog doesn't have legs. I want to look at an Over with the total so low and the Marlins pen so unruly, but I'd leave that total alone, too.

Pirates @ Giants (-200) with a total of 8
Ryan Doumit is 3-for-8 off Zito with an RBI;
Delwyn Young is 4-for-9 with 1 HR and 3 RBI;
Lastings Milledge is 2-for-3 with 1 HR and 2 RBI.
This is a pretty hefty price to play Barry Zito - has he really come that far? Ohlendorf is actually an underrated hurler, and the Giants have never really seen him. Despite a 3.13 ERA, Barry Zito has never defeated Pittsburgh, and I hate to say it, but at this price, you simply have to give a look at the dog, though we must remember how good the Giants are at home.

American League

Royals @ Tigers (-185) with a total of 8
Jose Guillen was 2-for-3 off Scherzer with 2 RBI before this year;
Mitch Maier is a perfect 3-for-3, but no peripherals;
Miguel Cabrera was 8-for-9 off Hochevar before his meeting with Hochevar last week;
Carlos Guillen was 4-for-10 with 1 HR and 3 RBI before last week.
This game has all kinds of value in the total, since these two pitchers dueled like madmen in a game that went to extras tied at 1, and ended 3-2. These pitchers aren't going to go 7 innings and give up a run, again. Comerica plays large, but look at the Over, at least briefly. The side has no value, since this one is going to be bullpen heavy, and we know how the Royals handle that situation.

Rangers @ Indians (-115) with a total of 8.5
Elvis Andrus is 2-for-4 off Carmona, Julio Borbon is 1-for-2, David Murphy is 4-for-7 with 3 RBI, and Chris Davis is 3-for-7;
Nelson Crus is 3-for-7 with 2 HR and 3 RBI off Carmona;
Josh Hamilton is a beefy 6-for-10 with 3 RBI;
Austin Kearns is 1-for-2 with a HR off Harden;
Luis Valbuena, interestingly, is 1-for-2 with a HR and 3 RBI.
Fausto Carmona is 2-6 career against the Rangers with an ERA of 6.02.
Carmona as a favorite? Must be a new season. Rich Harden is going to always put a huge strain on the bullpen because of his pitch count, but if he can go 5 strong innings, Texas should have enough offensively to take a lead into the late frames. Neither team has a great pen, though Texas just moved Neftali Feliz into the closer spot, so that should help. I lean Rangers, and I lean Over.

Red Sox (-140) @ Twins with a total of 9
Big Papi is 3-for-6 with a HR and 2 RBI off Carl Pavano;
Marco Scutaro is 4-for-13 with a HR and 2 RBI off Pavano;
Jason Varitek is 3-for-7, and Bill Hall is 2-for-3 with a HR and 2 RBI off Carl;
Brendan Harris is 8-for-18 with 4 RBI off Jon Lester;
Justin Morneau is 4-for-9 with a HR and 4 RBI off Lester;
Michael Cuddyer is 2-for-6, Nick Punto is 2-for-6, and Denard Span is 2-for-4.
The Twins have hit Lester pretty hard, as he's just 0-1, 5.66 ERA against them in his career, and Lester's a slow starter. Pavano looked solid in his start against the Angels, and he's a battler, but he's just 2-2, 6.38 ERA against Boston. I have a tiny lean to the Twins to make a splash in their home opener, and maybe I shouldn't admit this, but I want to see the new stadium play before making a play on a total here, even though I like the Over quite a bit, on paper.

Athletics @ Mariners (-120) with a total of 8
Kurt Suzuki was 6-for-15 off Rowland-Smith before their meeting last week.
Neither pitcher looked at all impressive when they faced off last week in a game that was eventually won by Oakland 6-5 in walkoff fashion. So, this total rests comfortably at 8 despite both starters struggling last time out, and the game ending at 11. I think you have to look at the Under, and assume both pitchers should throw a little better this time around.

Rays (-170) @ Orioles with a total of 8.5
B.J. Upton was 8-for-21 off Guthrie with 1 HR and 8 RBI before this season;
Carlos Pena was 6-for-16 with 1 HR and 4 RBI off Guthrie before this year;
Adam Jones was 4-for-10 off Garza with a HR and 2 RBI;
Miguel Tejada was 5-for-10 off Garza with 2 HR and 2 RBI before this year.
This is a rematch of a 1-run game in Tampa a little under a week ago, and while that bodes well for an underdog wager, Garza is 7-1, 2.67 ERA lifetime against Baltimore, and it's just not the right time to fade him. The Orioles are just awful with runners in scoring position, so they're not putting runs on the board, and their bullpen is allowing runs late, a bad combo. No leans on the side, no lean on the total.

White Sox (-130) @ Blue Jays with a total of 8.5
Alex Gonzalez is 4-for-9 off Peavy.
There is just no history to work off of, here. Tallet pitched well in his first start this year, and has decent numbers against the current White Sox. Peavy, despite all his time in the Majors, doesn't really have numbers against the Jays. Does he deserve to be a road favorite against a team that has started the year pretty hot? Tough to say. I have a miniscule lean to the home dog, but probably not enough information here to go on. Slight lean to the Under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Arthur Ralph Sports

430 - 311 run 58 %
Bonus Play Mon Texas

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DUNKEL NBA

Atlanta at Milwaukee
The Hawks are coming off a win at Washington and look to build on their 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 games following a SU win. Atlanta is the pick (+1) according to Dunkel, which has the game even. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+1)

Game 501-502: Miami at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 119.579; Philadelphia 118.500
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 1; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 4; 193 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+4); Under

Game 503-504: Orlando at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 126.343; Indiana 124.307
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 2; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 3 1/2; 210 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+3 1/2); Under

Game 505-506: Washington at New York
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 112.824; New York 116.969
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 4; 208
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 4 1/2; 209
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+4 1/2); Under

Game 507-508: Toronto at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 111.507; Detroit 120.403
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 9; 199
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 509-510: Charlotte at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 119.452; New Jersey 112.448
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 7; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 5 1/2; 191 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (-5 1/2); Over

Game 511-512: Atlanta at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 121.351; Milwaukee 121.749
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 1; 188
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+1); Over

Game 513-514: Minnesota at San Antonio
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 110.954; San Antonio 124.193
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 13; 207
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 14; 203
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+14); Over

Game 515-516: Memphis at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 110.864; Denver 123.783
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 13; 198
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 517-518: Houston at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 118.349; Sacramento 114.599
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 4; 206
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 1 1/2; 209
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+1 1/2); Under

Game 519-520: Oklahoma City at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 122.150; Portland 123.562
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 1 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 521-522: Dallas at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 122.332; LA Clippers 109.196
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 13; 197
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DUNKEL MLB

Boston at Minnesota
The Twins look to build on their 8-2 record in their last 10 games as an underdog of +110 to +150. Minnesota is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Twins favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+130)

Game 951-952: Milwaukee at Chicago Cubs
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Davis) 15.029; Cubs (Dempster) 14.349
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-155); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+135); N/A

Game 953-954: Washington at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Marquis) 15.031; Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.558
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-275); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-275); Under

Game 955-956: Houston at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Rodriguez) 13.886; St. Louis (Wainwright) 14.793
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-205); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-205); Over

Game 957-958: Atlanta at San Diego
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Jurrjens) 15.050; San Diego (Correia) 14.684
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-155); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-155); Under

Game 959-960: Cincinnati at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.094; Florida (Nolasco) 15.206
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Florida (-155); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-155); Under

Game 961-962: Pittsburgh at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Ohlendorf) 15.298; San Francisco (Zito) 14.753
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+170); Over

Game 963-964: Kansas City at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City (Hochevar) 15.066; Detroit (Scherzer) 14.699
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit (-200); 8
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+170); Over

Game 965-966: Texas at Cleveland
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Harden) 14.576; Cleveland (Carmona) 15.100
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-110); Over

Game 967-968: Boston at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Lester) 15.902; Minnesota (Pavano) 16.373
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Boston (-150); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+130); Over

Game 969-970: Oakland at Seattle
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Duchscherer) 15.211; Seattle (Rowland-Smith) 15.380
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Seattle (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-120); Over

Game 971-972: Tampa Bay at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Garza) 14.769; Baltimore (Guthrie) 14.616
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-155); Over

Game 973-974: Chicago White Sox at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago White Sox (Peavy) 16.089; Toronto (Tallet) 15.413
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (-125); Under

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SUPER POGODAK SOCCER 4/12

Estudiantes - Racing Club
Bet on Estudiantes @ 1.75

St Pauli - Augsburg
Bet on St Pauli @ 2.25

Kayserispor - Sivasspor
Bet on Kayserispor @ 1.85